Solar storms can affect technologies that we use in our daily lives, such as navigation, communication, and electricity. On March 13, 1989, a solar storm caused a major blackout in Québec, Canada, as geomagnetically induced currents damaged the power grid. The storm disturbed Earth’s magnetic environment and triggered the electricity network’s protection systems, leaving the province without power for more than nine hours. This event showed that activity on the Sun, millions of kilometers away, could have a significant impact on Earth. Today, scientists are developing forecasting systems, including tools that take advantage of AI, to help protect these technologies from solar storms.
Solar storms involve different processes. One of the processes of a solar storm, the solar flare, involves the sudden release of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun. This radiation can disturb high-frequency radio communication when it reaches Earth. Another process is a coronal mass ejection (CME), where the Sun releases plasma and a magnetic field into space. In contrast to radiation from solar flares, this material takes longer to reach Earth. The fastest CMEs that are directed to Earth can arrive in approximately 15 to 18 hours, while slower ones take several days. When a CME interacts with Earth’s magnetic environment, it can cause a geomagnetic storm, a temporary disturbance of Earth’s magnetosphere. The strength of the disturbance depends on the strength and direction of the magnetic field carried by the CME. A magnetic field that remains directed southward can cause stronger disturbances compared to other directions.
GPS is one of the technologies affected by solar storms. To determine a location, GPS receivers use signals sent by satellites; however, these signals pass through the ionosphere, a region of Earth’s upper atmosphere that contains charged particles. When a solar storm disturbs this region, receivers may calculate an incorrect location or lose track of satellite signals. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), severe space weather can increase errors in single-frequency GPS. This creates problems for activities such as farming, surveying, and construction, which require accurate location information.
Solar storms can also affect satellite operations, radio communication, and electricity networks. Rapid changes in Earth’s magnetic field can induce electric currents in long transmission lines. These geomagnetically induced currents can overload transformers and trigger protective equipment, which is what contributed to the Hydro-Québec collapse. However, this does not mean that every solar event causes serious damage to those technologies. The European Space Agency explains that most solar events have little or no noticeable effect on people’s daily lives. Therefore, scientists’ goal is to identify which events could cause major disruptions and provide useful warnings before their effects reach Earth to protect people’s convenience. To forecast these events, scientists examine images of the Sun to estimate whether a CME is directed toward Earth. Images of a CME can tell forecasters that an event is Earth-directed many hours or days before arrival, but one of the most important variables determining whether it will cause a strong geomagnetic storm is the direction of its magnetic field, particularly whether it remains southward. Spacecraft positioned between Earth and the Sun can also measure approaching solar wind just before the actual impacts. These measurements provide information about the approaching solar disturbance and can give a warning approximately 15 to 60 minutes before a CME-associated shock reaches Earth. Although the warning time varies, it can help operators decide how to protect their systems.
AI is one method researchers are exploring to improve these forecasts. A model called DAGGER uses deep learning to study the relationship between solar-wind conditions and magnetic disturbances measured on Earth. According to a 2023 NASA article, the model can predict geomagnetic disturbances 30 minutes before impact and update its predictions every single minute. It predicts disturbances in Earth’s magnetic environment, rather than predicting eruptions before they occur on the Sun. Its development shows how it uses those solar-wind measurements to forecast where and how strongly Earth’s magnetic field may be disturbed about 30 minutes ahead, with predictions updated every minute. These developments are strengthened with AI technology to support the accuracy of warnings.
However, improved forecasting itself is not sufficient to protect the technologies from getting damaged. Following the 1989 blackout, Hydro-Québec adjusted its protection systems, introduced real-time monitoring, and installed equipment to improve the stability of its electricity network. Also, it recalibrated protection-system thresholds, installed series-compensation equipment to improve grid stability, and developed operational procedures such as reducing power transfers when major geomagnetic disturbances are expected. These changes indicate that preparation also requires improving infrastructure and establishing clear responses to warnings, and the importance of a complete chain from forecasting to action.
As we continue to depend on such technologies in our daily lives, preparing for solar storms remains important. Better forecasting systems, including AI models, could give time to respond. By improving both forecasting technology and infrastructure, we can reduce the disruption that solar storms may cause in our daily lives.
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